DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141732
SWODY2
SPC AC 141730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
EXTENSIVE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE
AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA...WHILE CYCLOGENESIS/MOIST ADVECTION
OTHERWISE INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
WEAK DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW
TSTMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MIDDLE MO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES AND THE INFLUENCES OF A LINGERING
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO ABATE...MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR NEAR/ABOVE THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AID OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED MOISTENING ALOFT
RELATIVE TO LINGERING CAPPING PROVIDES A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF TSTMS FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT EVEN
SO...A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS /HIGHLY ELEVATED/ WILL EXIST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.

..GUYER.. 11/14/2013

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