MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2307

ACUS11 KWNS 040700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040659
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2307
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/EASTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST
MO/WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040659Z - 040900Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MO/WESTERN AR. THE RELATIVELY ISOLATED/MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EXPECTED RISK SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
ISSUANCE.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY EXHIBITED AN INTENSIFICATION TREND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL OK EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS
FEATURES A ROUGHLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SLOW MOVING WARM
FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK/NORTHERN TX. TRENDS OF WSR-88D DERIVED
WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT A 40+ KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF TX/OK.
AS THIS LOW LEVEL JET FURTHER INCREASES/VEERS OVERNIGHT PER SHORT
TERM RUC GUIDANCE...PARCELS GRADUALLY BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO
THEIR LFC ON THE EAST-NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE GRADUALLY
NORTHEAST-ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD FAVOR AN UPSWING IN DEEP
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

EARLY EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM NORMAN/FORT WORTH REFLECTED
THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/1000-1500 J PER KG MUCAPE/ THAT IS IN PLACE COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/MOIST AXIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. WHILE MID
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE MODEST OWING TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING...AMPLE
VEERING THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT
ROTATION...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/04/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

37039796 37969556 37149421 34689421 34699643

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.