SWODY1
SPC AC 041617
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD/DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND REACH THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING/WEAK
INSTABILITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AZ/NM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITHIN THE BAND OF STRONG ASCENT PRECEDING THE STRONG
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM SE CA/SRN NV.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS INVOF TXK IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SWLY LLJ AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS AREA
DIMINISHES. THE LLJ WILL BACK TO SLY AND STRENGTHEN FARTHER N
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...RESULTING IN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD FROM TX/OK TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NRN EDGE OF THE RETURNING MOISTURE WILL BE
MARKED BY A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL LIFT NWD FROM KS/OK TO NEB/IA BY
TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTENING WILL BE FOCUSED BY THE LLJ
ALONG THE WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT TONIGHT FROM ERN NEB/SD INTO
IA. LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING AND LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN THE ZONE OF WAA AND
ALONG THE ERN/NERN EDGE OF THE CAP. ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF
500-750 J/KG/ MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LATE TONIGHT.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 10/04/2008
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