SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021931
OKZ000-KSZ000-022100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/W-CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021931Z - 022100Z
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES ALONG A SHARP COLD
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION. THE REGION
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS.
AS OF 19Z...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM
AROUND 20 N ICT SWWD TO 35 S GAG. VIS SATELLITE DEPICTS GROWING
CU/SMALL CBS ALONG THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENT BANDS AND CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS N-CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS. ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY INVOF END TO PNC...A NOTABLE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY. EXPECT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO FILL-IN BETWEEN THIS AREA OF TSTMS AND THOSE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
30-40 KTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000
J/KG/...SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
LARGELY MODULATE THE OVERALL THREAT WITH UPSCALE CONSOLIDATION INTO
ONE OF MORE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS THE LIKELY SCENARIO.
.GRAMS.. 10/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
35949736 35659825 35289908 35269974 35689991 36259921
36579864 36899781 37129669 37019593 36659577 36249586
36059629 35959722
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