SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021657
FLZ000-021900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 021657Z - 021900Z
TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH PW/S AROUND 2.25 WITH MUCAPES TO 2500
J/KG...HAVE SPREAD NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA ON SLY FLOW
TO E OF SFC/UPR LOW OVER ERN GOM. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY
25KT OR LESS...THE SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20KT...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA...SUPPORTS POTENTIAL ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ENHANCED LOW E/W
CONVERGENCE TPA TO MLB ALONG WITH DEVELOPING INLAND MOVING E COAST
SEA BREEZE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR
STRONG/ISOLATED STORMS THRU AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD. ALONG WITH
WET MICRO-BURSTS...ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WATCH BUT
AREA WILL BE MONITORED THRU THE AFTERNOON.
.HALES.. 10/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
28638272 29218113 28188054 27228026 26898064 26688126
26778224 27718274
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