SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022316
ILZ000-IAZ000-030015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 022316Z - 030015Z
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN IA
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
A STRONG SLY 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET BENEATH A 70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET
ATTENDING AN EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN LARGE
0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES ACROSS ERN IA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT THROUGH ERN
IA NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WITHIN THE
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ARE RESULTING IN A CONDITIONAL THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...AND IF STORMS DO NOT SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE
EWD INTO A MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
.DIAL.. 10/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...
40969080 40879218 42419193 42229032
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