MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2051

ACUS11 KWNS 022032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022031
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-022130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO...S-CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022031Z - 022130Z

AS DISCRETE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND ALONG A SHARP
COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADOES
WILL INCREASE GIVEN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH BEYOND 00Z...THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING ALONG
A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM AROUND 20 E DNS TO TOP
AS OF 20Z. A NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION SHIFTED
EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 80 FROM STJ TO ICL.
LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF
1 KM AGL SWLYS /PER LATEST PROFILERS/ LEADING TO 0-1 KM SRH IN
EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL N/S CORRIDOR OF
INCREASED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. EXPECTED
DURATION OF THIS THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED GIVEN ABUNDANT
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN IA/NERN MO AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

.GRAMS.. 10/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

41659486 42009448 41929362 41339318 40649330 40079349
39459382 39289472 39529511 40429505 40759502

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