MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2054

ACUS11 KWNS 030128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030127
ILZ000-MOZ000-030300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 701...

VALID 030127Z - 030300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 701 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 03Z FROM E
CNTRL MO THROUGH W CNTRL AND CNTRL IL. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN
CONTAINED WITHIN WW 701 THROUGH 03Z. HOWEVER...STORMS MOVING THROUGH
NERN CORNER OF WATCH MAY BEGIN TO EXIT WW BY 02Z. A LOCAL EXTENTION
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED INTO PARTS OF CNTRL IL.

PRE-FRONTAL STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM E CNTRL
MO JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS NEWD INTO W CNTRL IL. STORMS ARE MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 KT...AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH MENARD
COUNTY WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE WATCH BY 02Z. STORMS ARE NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST THETA-E WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000
J/KG. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO IL
WHERE RECOVERY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY PERSIST A ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES EAST OF
CURRENT WW WHERE 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 400 M2/S2 AND
STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS STORMS BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST OF MOIST AXIS AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER IN WAKE
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

.DIAL.. 10/03/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

40418944 39408939 38469047 38389202 38779224 39609184
40159101

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