DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030053
SWODY1
SPC AC 030052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
SWRN OK NEWD INTO ECNTRL/IA AND NWRN IL...

..SRN PLAINS TO THE UPR MS VLY...
00Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM WRN WI SWD ACROSS
ERN IA AND CNTRL MO SWWD TO CNTRL OK. A COLD FRONT LAGS THIS
FEATURE BY 50-75 MILES AND WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE IT WITH TIME
THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACE A NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES RANGING
FROM AROUND 800 J/KG OVER THE UPR MS VLY TO 1700 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL
OK.

STRONGEST DCVA ASSOCD WITH THE UPR TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND WAS SUPPORTING STRONGLY FORCED TSTM LINE
SEGMENTS. 00Z DVN SOUNDING EXHIBITS VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
1 KM WITH SRH IN EXCESS OF 340 M2/S2. DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY...
A COUPLE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH SOME
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
DMGG WIND GUST ACROSS EXTREME ERN IA AND NWRN IL UNTIL STORMS OUTRUN
THE INSTABILITY AXIS 02-03Z.

FARTHER S...MORE ROBUST TSTMS EXIST FROM ECNTRL MO SWWD INTO SWRN OK
WITHIN STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST FLOW...ALONG THE BASE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...EXISTS ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY WITH
ROUGHLY 45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THOUGH STORMS HAVE LIKELY
PEAKED...THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS WITH DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES
ACROSS ECNTRL-SWRN/SCNTRL MO.

TAIL-END OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCD SCT TSTMS RESIDE IN COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT ACROSS CNTRL-SWRN OK AND
NWRN TX. AS A RESULT...ONLY ISOLD STG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BACKBUILD SWWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX OVERNIGHT...BUT THE SVR THREATS
WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

.RACY.. 10/03/2007

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