SWODY1
SPC AC 021252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE MID
MS VLY...
..SYNOPSIS...
BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF AK/NE PAC THIS PERIOD AS
RIDGE LINGERS OVER MEXICO. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER CO/WY...
EMBEDDED IN FAST WLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM PAC TROUGH...WILL ASSUME A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES E/NE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS
TODAY...AND ACROSS UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE SLOWLY WWD.
AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT WITH CO/WY SYSTEM WILL SWEEP E/SE ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLNS AND UPR MS VLY TODAY...AND THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY
AND THE OZARKS TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER N TX ON WEDNESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING.
..SRN PLNS INTO MID MS VLY...
COLD FRONT AND...FARTHER S...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SHOULD SERVE AS
THE MAIN FOCI FOR SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NW TX/WRN OK NE INTO THE MID MS VLY. OTHER SFC OR
NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS MAY EVOLVE ON ERN EDGE OF CURRENT BAND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION AS THAT BAND SHIFTS E INTO ERN KS/MO AND SRN IA
LATER TODAY.
AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIMIT LOW-LVL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NRN PART OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. BUT
COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING UPR IMPULSE...SUBSTANTIAL /40-45 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...
30+ KT LOW-LVL SHEAR...AND LINEAR UPLIFT ALONG FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW
FROM CURRENT CONVECTION WILL CREATE SETUP FAVORABLE FOR A BROKEN
BAND OR TWO OF STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN A FEW BOWING
SEGMENTS AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES DESPITE WEAK LOW TO MID
LVL LAPSE RATES.
FARTHER SW...IN WAKE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION BAND...GREATER SFC
HEATING EXPECTED OVER WRN OK INTO NW. REGION WILL BE FAIRLY FAR
REMOVED FROM STRONGER ASCENT/DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BUT GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE
INVOF COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTERSECTION...IN ADDITION TO
PROXIMITY OF HI LVL SPEED MAX/DIFFLUENCE MAX...SETUP COULD YIELD A
FEW SUSTAINED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO
SMALL CLUSTERS THAT MOVE E/SE BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING.
..FL...
S TO SELY LOW LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY
AS SUB TROPICAL LOW CONTINUES WWD. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE NWD...SFC HEATING AND...POSSIBLY...INCREASING HI-LVL FLOW
WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
STORMS. MODERATE LOW-LVL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND NRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA INVOF
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY STALLED NE/SW ACROSS REGION. SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW
STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND/OR A DMGG WIND GUST
OR TWO.
.CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 10/02/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment