MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2053

ACUS11 KWNS 022354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022353
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-030130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN OK INTO SWRN AND W CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 700...

VALID 022353Z - 030130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 700
CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS FROM CNTRL AND NERN OK THROUGH
SWRN AND W CNTRL MO. STORMS ARE APPROACHING SERN PORTION OF THE WW
ACROSS SWRN MON. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND ANOTHER WW
DOWNSTREAM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING COLD
FRONT IN REMAINING PARTS OF WW 700 FROM CNTRL OK NEWD THROUGH CNTRL
MO. PRIMARILY MULTICELL MODES EXIST IN OK PORTION OF WW WITH SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES STILL BEING OBSERVED IN MO PORTION WHERE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGER. A RATHER MODEST THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS ALONG WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW TO VEER AND WEAKEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL WINDS
ATTENDING UPPER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT NEWD INTO TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND.

.DIAL.. 10/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36199471 35209745 35349808 36439638 39119365 39439247
38379268 37919178

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