SWODY2
SPC AC 241727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...
..SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER UT/WRN
CO...ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF A SEPARATE TROUGH
TRACKING EWD THROUGH SRN CANADA BY THE START OF DAY 2 ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. THESE PHASED TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY...FURTHER BREAKING DOWN THE ERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...EMBEDDED WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD FROM AR INTO THE OH VALLEY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT WITH SRN CANADA/GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM LM SWWD THROUGH IL/MO TO
ERN OK AND NRN-WRN TX LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
..LOWER MI INTO PART OF INDIANA/IL/NWRN OH...
SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
FROM THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND STRONGER MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING NEWD WITH AR
IMPULSE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z TUESDAY ALONG
THE EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE
RATES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 500-1500 J/KG. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
NEWD FROM MO INTO LOWER MI AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS...AND ASCENT AHEAD OF AR IMPULSE SPREADS
ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. STRONGEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /30-35
KT/ WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED ACROSS LOWER MI SWWD INTO IL IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ATTENDANT TO SRN CANADA/GREAT
LAKES TROUGH. ALTHOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO COEXIST FROM
IL TO LOWER MI TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WEAK
LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..MO SWWD TO SRN PLAINS...
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG
THIS EXTENT OF THE FRONT FROM MO INTO SRN OK...NRN/WRN TX AND SERN
NM. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SWWD FROM MO.
.PETERS.. 09/24/2007
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