SWODY1
SPC AC 241232
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2007
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN
WI...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND DE-AMPLIFY.
MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES AND MIDWEST. POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD FORCING WILL PROMOTE A
RISK OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS FROM WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW OVER SD/NEB WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND
FROM NORTHWEST KS INTO CENTRAL MN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST AHEAD OF SOUTHERN END OF FRONT OVER PARTS
OF KS/NEB...WITH INCREASINGLY MORE CLOUD COVER NORTHWARD INTO MN/WI.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG OVER KS
LESSENING TO 250-500 J/KG OVER WI. DESPITE WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS
FARTHER NORTH...STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND A WEAKER CAP SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA.
SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF
WI/UPPER MI.
.HART/GRAMS.. 09/24/2007
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