SWODY2
SPC AC 260653
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WHILE AN UPPER VORTEX STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS OVER SERN CANADA
AND THE NERN CONUS.
COOL/STABLE AIRMASS WILL HINDER DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND THE
S CENTRAL CONUS...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT SPREADING EWD...AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CONUS...WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
...PORTIONS OF AZ AND NM...
COLD AIR ALOFT /-20C AT H5/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH...RESULTING IN MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS AREA. THOUGH STRONGER SHEAR WILL
NATURALLY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD POCKET...A FEW
VIGOROUS/LOW-TOPPED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL COULD OCCUR AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THIS REGION.
...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SERN TX INTO NRN/WRN LA...
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AIDING IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION
WITH TIME...AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT -- PARTICULARLY DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED/STEADY INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME...A FEW
STRONGER CELLS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT. WHILE OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL -- AND THE SEVERE THREAT
IN GENERAL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS.
..GOSS.. 11/26/2008
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