SWODY3
SPC AC 260807
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL/SERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WHILE WEAKENING/BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF NOAM.
WHILE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WILL PRECLUDE DEEP
CONVECTION...A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE INVOF THE GULF COAST MAY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE NAM KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY ONSHORE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY MORE QUICKLY SWD INTO THE
GULF.
SHOULD THE BOUNDARY -- AND MOIST WARM SECTOR -- REMAIN ONSHORE
LONGER PER THE NAM SOLUTION...A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT COULD
EXIST. HOWEVER...LIMITED NATURE OF ANY POTENTIAL THREAT AND LACK OF
CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF A
THREAT AREA ATTM.
..GOSS.. 11/26/2008
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