MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2395

ACUS11 KWNS 260601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260600
CAZ000-260800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 260600Z - 260800Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CA THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. FAVORABLE TERRAIN ORIENTATION AND RECENT BURN AREAS
WILL MAKE PORTIONS OF SRN CA ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING
AS SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS DRAIN INTO LOWER BASINS.

A STRONG UPPER LOW NOTED ON WV IMAGERY ROUGHLY 250 MI W OF SANTA
BARBARA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESEWD TOWARD THE CA COAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OBSERVED PWAT ON BOTH 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES DATA
INDICATE VALUES NEAR OR OVER 1 INCH...NEARLY 150 TO 200% ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. WV IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRM A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS...AND SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME FEEDING NWD
WITH ALMOST CONTINUOUS RAINFALL ACROSS SRN CA. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS AND BELOW SHOWN ON VWP DATA WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF STORMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK FRONT. A SECOND AREA WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
VORT MAX BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...SEEN ON WV IMAGERY APPROXIMATELY
250 MI W OF SAN DIEGO. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ONSHORE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES.

RECENT BURN AREAS AND FAVORABLE TERRAIN ORIENTATION...ESPECIALLY
STEEP TERRAIN...WILL MAKE MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING.

..HURLBUT.. 11/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...MTR...

LAT...LON 34362038 35082079 36262028 36251947 35881874 35111747
33651632 32641613 32491715 33481763 34041889 34351954
34362038

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