SWODY1
SPC AC 260537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD WILL BE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE FAR ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS NRN BAJA AND THE NRN GULF OF CA INTO SRN AZ TONIGHT. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER SYSTEM EWD
INTO AZ.
...SERN CA INTO CNTRL/SRN AZ...
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD THROUGH THE SWRN
DESERTS IN ADVANCE OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AOA ONE INCH. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /INCREASING TO 7.0-7.5 C PER KM/ TO
SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD /WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS/ EWD
ACROSS SRN CA INTO WRN AZ TODAY...AND ACROSS AZ OVERNIGHT. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST ROBUST TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER FAR SERN CA INTO PARTS OF SWRN AND S-CNTRL AZ THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STEEPENING
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODESTLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 11/26/2008
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