SWODY1
SPC AC 261955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST WED NOV 26 2008
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THREE PRIMARY SHORTWAVES
THIS PERIOD. EASTERNMOST OF THESE...ANCHORED BY CYCLONE CENTERED
OVER SWRN QUE -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NWD...ALONG WITH
NEARLY COLLOCATED SFC CYCLONE. MEANWHILE...STG OPEN WAVE TROUGH --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SASK/AB BORDER SSWWD
ACROSS WRN MT -- WILL PROCEED ESEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED INITIALLY OVER
WRN/NRN MT -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BEFORE 27/12Z.
MEANWHILE...UPPER CYCLONE THAT NOW COVERS PORTIONS SRN CA AND
ADJACENT/OFFSHORE WATERS -- WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD
ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SEVERAL VORTICITY LOBES ORBIT
COMMON CENTER. BEST DEFINED OF THESE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA
APPEARS TO BE SW OF CHANNEL ISLANDS NEAR 33N122W AS OF 19Z...AND MAY
BECOME PRIMARY CENTER OF UPPER CYCLONE AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN CA
THROUGH LATE EVENING. ASSOCIATED/TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD PIVOT NEWD
ACROSS NRN BAJA AND CO RIVER DELTA REGION THROUGH END OF PERIOD.
...SWRN CONUS...
SMALL PLUME OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -- WITH SFC DEW POINTS
60S F -- IS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN GULF OF CA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
EXTREME SERN CA AND EXTREME SWRN AZ...INCLUDING IMPERIAL VALLEY AND
LOWER CO RIVER AREA. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS PRECLUDED STG HEATING
OVER THIS REGION...SFC TEMPS UPPER 60S INTO LOW 70S F WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO YIELD SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS...WITH MLCAPES
POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR 500 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 50
KT...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-50 KT -- IS PROBABLE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS IN SUPPORT OF A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR
SVR LEVELS POSSIBLE.
...SRN CA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY POTENTIAL FOR
NONSUPERCELLULAR WATERSPOUTS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN
RATHER SPARSE SO FAR...BENEATH COLD-CORE REGION OF CYCLONE...VIS
IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY LOOPS INDICATE CONVECTION INCREASING IN ARC
LOCATED S OF SANTA ROSA AND SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS. STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SFC TEMPS/DEW POINTS LOW 60S CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES
250-600 J/KG OVER WATER IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...WITH SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS. LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CYCLONE CENTER WHERE GRADIENTS ALOFT ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS MARINE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED...INCLUDING PORTIONS ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS AND
ISLANDS...UNTIL STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT FIELD MOVES INLAND LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
..EDWARDS.. 11/26/2008
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