SWODY1
SPC AC 231245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL...GA AND AL...
...SYNOPSIS...
T.S FAY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY W OR WNW THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...AND WRN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW MOVES E
TO NEAR JAMES BAY. AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS...OH VLY...AND THE
OZARKS...WHILE LEE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NRN AND
CNTRL HI PLNS.
...SERN STATES...
T.S. FAY APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH W THAT ITS LOW LVL
CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO TAP RICH MOISTURE OVER THE FAR ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS FAY CONTINUES SLOWLY W OR SLIGHTLY WNWWD...CONVECTIVE
CELLS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE BANDS EXTENDING S/SE INTO
THE NERN GULF MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY AS
MODEST SFC HEATING OCCURS ON E SIDE OF BANDS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY FORM IN ZONE OF CONFLUENT BUT
GRADUALLY DECREASING LOW LVL FLOW OVER SRN AND PERHAPS CNTRL
GA...E/NE OF FAY. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND ENLARGED 0-1 KM
HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF LOW LVL MESOCYCLONES
AND ISOLD TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL DEVELOP W ACROSS WRN PARTS OF
FL PANHANDLE AND SRN AL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...LWR MI INTO MID MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED COLD FRONT FROM MI SW INTO IND/IL WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR LOW LVL ASCENT/SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTN...DESPITE CONTINUED ENE WITHDRAWAL OF ASSOCIATED UPR TROUGH
INTO CANADA. COMBINATION OF A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S F/...MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...AND SFC HEATING SHOULD YIELD POCKETS OF 1500 TO PERHAPS 2000
J/KG SBCAPE. WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP ASCENT/FLOW REMAINING
POST-FRONTAL...PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE PULSE OR MULTICELL...
ESPECIALLY S OF MI. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD...HOWEVER... PRODUCE
LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS OF HAIL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
...NRN KS/SRN NEB TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...
WRN PART OF COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP N ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE HI PLNS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST INVOF BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...BUT WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY WARM MID LVL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
LIMIT STRENGTH/COVERAGE OF STORMS. STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB IN DEVELOPING WAA ZONE N OF FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLD HAIL WITH SOME STORMS.
WHILE THE CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
CLUSTER...WEAK CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/LARGE HAIL.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 08/23/2008
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