SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231647
MIZ000-231745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231647Z - 231745Z
LINE OF TSTMS MAY POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT AS IT
DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
LATEST VWP DATA FROM GAYLORD SHOWS 30-40 KTS OF 1-3 KM
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE LINE THAT
EXTENDED FROM FAR NCENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD TO WCENTRAL LOWER MI/LAKE
MICHIGAN. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DESTABILIZED
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL BE
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6 DEG C/KM AND HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS /12-13
KFT/. HOWEVER...GIVEN LINEAR NATURE OF CONVECTION COUPLED WITH
MODEST WIND FIELDS...AT LEAST ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE.
..CROSBIE.. 08/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
45688417 44718561 43928639 43428636 43238621 42938612
43038476 43668321 44728310 45438300
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