SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231841
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-232045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AL...NERN FL...CENTRAL/ERN PANHANDLE
OF FL...S-CENTRAL/SWRN GA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 857...
VALID 231841Z - 232045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 857 CONTINUES.
CONTINUE REMAINING PORTIONS WW THROUGH SCHEDULED 19Z EXPIRATION.
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE GETTING MORE
HORIZONTALLY DISPLACED...THOUGH SOME OVERLAP STILL SUPPORTS MRGL
TORNADO POTENTIAL. OCCURRENCE OF A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AFTER WW EXPIRES. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ANALYSES DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS INDICATE THREAT MAY BE TOO MRGL
AND WIDELY DISPERSED FOR ANOTHER WW. MIXED SIGNALS IN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND CONVECTIVE MODE INDICATE TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN VERY SPORADIC/DIFFUSE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...BEFORE
UNDERGOING NOCTURNAL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING BETWEEN
INNER AND OUTER BANDS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS UNDERGONE GEN INCREASE SINCE LATE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NWRN FL AND S-CENTRAL/SERN GA...BUT WITH
PRIMARILY LINEAR/SEGMENTED MODES...SHORT LIFESPANS FOR MOST DISCRETE
ACTIVITY...AND DISTINCT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT/PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS IN WHAT OTHERWISE HAS APPEARED TO BE FAVORABLE
SHEAR/BUOYANCY JUXTAPOSITION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER MOST OF SRN GA
AND NERN FL STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE WITH 0-1KM SRH 200-400
J/KG...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS PARENT CIRCULATION MOVES
FARTHER WWD. SFC THERMAL AXIS STILL IS ANALYZED FROM LOWER SAV
RIVER AREA WSWWD INTO SWRN GA...SUPPORTING EWD INCREASE IN MLCAPE
FROM AROUND 250 J/KG OVER SWRN GA TO 500-800 J/KG OVER SERN GA.
STRONGER HEATING OVER CENTRAL/NRN FL SUPPORTS 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPES...BUT IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAKER SHEAR.
REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND
TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON FAY.
..EDWARDS.. 08/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
29818503 30498494 31338537 31578572 32458568 32938425
32428286 32008231 31628272 30978268 30388258 28548263
29178279 29128303 29528338 29688340 29768363 29968367
30108402 30048431 29918437 29768461 29608493
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