MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2138

ACUS11 KWNS 230706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230705
MOZ000-KSZ000-230900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE KS INTO NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 230705Z - 230900Z

STORMS MAY REMAIN STRONG ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACROSS REGION APPEARS MOSTLY
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LARGE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...TOWARD EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FORCING MAY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY ENHANCED BY THE
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEE SURFACE TROUGH.

SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY
WEAK. BUT...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
...BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE AS HIGH AS 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...AND COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY PROMOTE SOME SMALL
HAIL...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST OR TWO. BUT... APPARENT DEEP
MOIST SUB-CLOUD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PROBABLY WILL MITIGATE
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

BAND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
MANHATTAN AND AREAS NEAR/EAST OF KANSAS CITY BETWEEN NOW AND 09-10Z.
THEREAFTER...VEERING/WEAKENING OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 08/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

39549691 39689645 39769575 39849512 39919453 39759365
38869373 38759484 38699615 38619673 39139724

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.