SWODY2
SPC AC 220542
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON SUNDAY.
AS A STRONG POLAR JET SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO...WHILE STEADY HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES IN ADVANCE OF A FAST-MOVING/AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
POTENTIALLY LINGERING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...ALTHOUGH
FACTORS SUCH AS WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE/WARMING ALOFT WITH TIME
IMPLY THAT THE COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD WILL BE LIMITED. NO SEVERE TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED.
OTHER MORE ISOLATED TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN VICINITY OF AN
ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT/WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION. WHILE SOME
TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A CORRIDOR INCLUDING NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MN/WI TO MI...A DEGREE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND
EXPECTATIONS FOR ONLY SPORADIC COVERAGE PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF
10 PERCENT TSTM PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 10/22/2011
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