SWODY2
SPC AC 221727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS INDICATED BY THE INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK...A STRONG POLAR JET
SHIFTING EWD OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ON SUNDAY. HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WRN STATES IN ADVANCE TO THE APPROACH OF A FAST-MOVING/
AMPLIFYING TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED S OF THE ALEUTIANS PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
EVOLUTION IN THE WEST...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL SHIFT
E TO THE PLAINS AND ERN STATES...RESPECTIVELY.
...E TX/ARKLATEX REGION...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LINGERING SATURDAY NIGHT TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY
THE ARKLATEX SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WAA AND
WARMING ALOFT AS THE DAY 1 SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESE
AWAY FROM THE CORRIDOR OF GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER E TX TO
THE ARKLATEX. THE COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTMS WILL BE
LIMITED...AND NO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED.
...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH OH/MID MS VALLEYS...
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL PROGRESS ESEWD FROM
ALBERTA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL AID IN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NRN EXTENT OF THE ERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL WAA EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING ALBERTA SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...AND
POTENTIALLY S TOWARD THE OZARKS. WHILE A COUPLE OF TSTMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MINIMAL
OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A 10 PERCENT
GENERAL TSTM AREA.
..PETERS.. 10/22/2011
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