SWODY1
SPC AC 221613
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX...
...PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST WERE MADE TO SHAVE OFF NWRN PARTS OF
SVR PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK OVER WRN OK AND ADD TO THE
SRN FRINGE OF SVR RISKS IN N TX.
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AS PLANNED WITH MID-UPR 50S DEW
POINTS ANTICIPATED BY MID-AFTN NEAR A WARM FRONT IN CNTRL/SRN OK AND
N TX /MLCAPES 500-1500 J PER KG/. AS FORMIDABLE UPR WAVE OVER WRN
KS BRUSHES ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...TSTMS WILL INITIATE 22-23Z IN
CNTRL OK ALA 12Z WRF-NMM/1.33KM NAM NESTED GRID. THOUGH MID-LVL WLY
FLOW EXHIBITS WEAKNESS...HIGH-LVL FLOW WILL BOOST EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVE. COOL THERMO
PROFILES AND 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL.
FOCUSED AREA OF LLVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND CONTINUED ESE
AMPLIFICATION OF DIFLUENT UPR TROUGH SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY COULD
EVOLVE INTO A SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS OR TWO...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED HAIL/MARGINAL WIND THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING SE ACROSS
PARTS OF N TX AFTER DARK.
..RACY/LEITMAN.. 10/22/2011
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