MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2268

ACUS11 KWNS 221850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221849
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-222045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN OK...NCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX AND
SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221849Z - 222045Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 21-23Z FROM PARTS CNTRL
THROUGH SERN OK AND DEVELOP SEWD INTO NERN TX AND SWRN AR. INITIAL
THREATS WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS
CONGEAL INTO AN MCS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN AR NWWD THROUGH CNTRL
OK. A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS WRN AND NWRN TX. BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE FROM
N-CNTRL AND NERN TX INTO SRN AND S-CNTRL OK. VISIBLE SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACCAS OVER NRN OK MOVING SEWD...WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS IS INCREASING OVER NERN TX AND SE OK. THE
ACCAS IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF INCREASING MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX MOVING SEWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND NWRN OK. CINH SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...AND THE BAND OF ASCENT BEGINS
TO ACT ON NRN FRINGE OF THE WARM SECTOR. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THE CORRIDOR FROM NERN TX...SERN THROUGH CNTRL OK WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS
THE INITIAL STORM MODE...BUT STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
AN MCS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -12 TO -16C AT 500
MB...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35909734 35559577 34949457 34079395 33179403 32749504
32909654 34119737 35059815 35659815 35909734

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.