MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2269

ACUS11 KWNS 230001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230001
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-230200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...OK INTO N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 869...

VALID 230001Z - 230200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 869
CONTINUES.

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER MUCH OF CNTRL OK. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WAS FOCUSED ALONG A W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT...AND ALSO FARTHER N IN
AN AREA BOTH WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND ALSO WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. ONLY A SINGLE STORM WAS OBSERVED IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR
ADA.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL PRODUCTION
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG. OBSERVED VWPS ALSO INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...ALTHOUGH FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW KM WERE
RELATIVELY WEAK...PERHAPS MITIGATING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
OVERALL.

SINGLE CELL STORMS OVER ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND TO THE S WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT...GENERALLY WITH MAX SIZES TO
PING PONG OR GOLF BALL SIZE. THESE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY GO THE WAY
OF THE NRN OK STORMS...BECOMING MORE OF A MERGED CLUSTER WITH TIME.
THIS COULD REDUCE HAIL THREAT...BUT INCREASE WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
STORMS WOULD THEN FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
OK...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NERN TX.

..JEWELL.. 10/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32769440 33079847 35599849 35229441 32769440

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