SWODY1
SPC AC 221252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE E PACIFIC AND FAR WRN U.S. AS
DOWNSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW OVER THE RCKYS AMPLIFIES ESE
ACROSS THE PLNS/OZARKS. A SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE IN THE
TROUGH...NOW OVER CO...SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO CNTRL KS/WRN OK BY
EVE...AND INTO AR/NRN LA BY 12Z SUN.
FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK AT THE SFC. LEE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS...WHILE DIFFUSE W-E WARM FRONT...NOW
OVER N TX...EDGES N INTO SRN/CNTRL OK LATER TODAY AND BECOMES STNRY.
...PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
NWLY MID LVL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLNS TODAY AS UPR
SYSTEM GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES OVER REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...20-25 KT
SSWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST E OF LEE TROUGH. SATELLITE-DERIVED
PW DATA AND THE MORNING RAOBS SHOW AN ARC OF RELATIVELY MOIST AIR
/WITH PW UP TO AN INCH/ OVER N TX...LARGELY COLLOCATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS MOIST AXIS SHOULD MOVE N THROUGH
THE DAY AND BE LOCATED OVER SRN OR CNTRL OK BY LATE AFTN.
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW...SFC HEATING...AND
ASCENT/MID LVL COOLING DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE
SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTN ALONG AND N OF WARM
FRONT IN OK...WHERE MUCAPE LIKELY WILL AVERAGE AOA 1500 J/KG...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND PRESENCE
OF 35-40 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCTD SUSTAINED
STORMS AND EVEN A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. FOCUSED AREA
OF LOW LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND CONTINUED ESE AMPLIFICATION OF
DIFLUENT UPR TROUGH SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A SMALL
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS OR TWO...WITH AN ASSOCIATED HAIL/MARGINAL
WIND THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING SE ACROSS PARTS OF TX AFTER DARK.
...ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO NRN PART OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH...OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND NW MN THIS EVE...WHERE SPARSE MOISTURE/MODEST BUOYANCY
SHOULD LIMIT SVR THREAT.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 10/22/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment