SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161711
COZ000-UTZ000-AZZ000-161915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN UTAH INTO PARTS OF WRN CO/NERN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161711Z - 161915Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY...
MOSTLY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. THIS IS NEAR
THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WHICH HAS RETURNED NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC/GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION.
HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AN INFLUX
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOW OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE WEST...ALONG
AND TO THE LEE OF THE WASATCH FRONT. THIS IS WHERE INSOLATION IS
ALSO STRONG...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN INHIBITION...LIKELY SUPPORTING INCREASING NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH. INTENSIFYING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME...IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500-1000+ J/KG. 40-50 KT 500
MB FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER
JET WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.
AND...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED BY ASSOCIATED
ENHANCED SEVERE THREATS.
.KERR.. 09/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...
38691153 39651112 40401037 40360909 38840899 37200982
36541060 36421148 37301219
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