SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162242
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-170015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162242Z - 170015Z
HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS STEADILY INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE OVER NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY INITIALLY
DEVELOPED IN CONNECTION WITH MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME THAT EXTENDS FROM
AZ...ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS INTO CO. MUCH OF ERN CO IS QUITE DRY WITH
DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F. AS A RESULT...SUB CLOUD
LAYER RH IS VERY LOW AND THIS MAY ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL GIVEN
UPDRAFTS ARE APPROACHING A REGION WHERE PW VALUES ARE NEAR ONE INCH.
ADDITIONALLY...A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE ALONG AS THEY TRACK TOWARD NWRN KS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THAT
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE
NOTED WITH STRONGER CORES. UNLESS A WELL DEFINED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURE
WERE TO EVOLVE OVER NERN CO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE IN NATURE.
.DARROW.. 09/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...
40240411 40450205 39520108 38800170 39260393
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