SWODY1
SPC AC 161254
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SWRN STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY AND SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH PLUME
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE SRN GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. SLOW MOVING IMPULSE...NOW OVER NRN MEXICO ON
WV IMAGERY...WILL ALSO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THE
PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM PORTIONS OF AZ/NM
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPARSE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT GREATER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING FLOW/SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN
TROUGH. LOW LEVEL WAA WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRANSPORTED NWD/NEWD THROUGH THE DAY BENEATH STOUT CAP EVIDENT ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. DESPITE THE CAPPING...ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...SUCH AS CURRENTLY OVER
KS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SPREAD EAST TONIGHT...BEING SUSTAINED BY
ASCENT ON NOSE OF LLJ.
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS LOW LEVEL WAA AND STRONG
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM MN TO IA.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVER THIS REGION BASED ON LIMITED
STORM COVERAGE.
..FL...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW MAY FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS MAY BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS AREA...FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES/SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
DOWNBURST.
.EVANS/CROSBIE/CARBIN.. 09/16/2007
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