SWODY1
SPC AC 161953
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AZ...ERN UT
AND WRN CO...
..AZ/ERN UT/WRN CO...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD FROM
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THIS PLUME ALONG AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD FROM CNTRL AZ INTO ERN UT. SBCAPE VALUES
ALONG THIS AXIS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS HELPING THE STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER SW WY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS SRN
NV IS CREATING MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS UT
AND WRN CO. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
WSR-88D VWPS SHOW PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WHICH COMBINED WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0
C/KM ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AZ AND ERN UT SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR WIND
DAMAGE WILL EXIST. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THAT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GENERALLY STEEPEN NWD ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS UT AND WRN
CO.
.BROYLES.. 09/16/2007
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