SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161747
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KS/WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161747Z - 161915Z
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING...STORMS
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH.
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CHANUTE AREA APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WHERE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR/DESTABILIZATION HAS BECOME ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF A 30-35 KT
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THE JET STREAK HAS GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING...BUT IS PART OF A BROADER SCALE LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME...DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK IMPULSE WHICH IS TOPPING THE
CREST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY/OZARKS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...THE LOW-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE A WARMING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INHIBITION.
.KERR.. 09/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
39339854 40419821 40659715 40479577 39809408 38499283
37599247 37059300 36989430 37769517 38929606
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