SWODY3
SPC AC 160726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST SWWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...
..SYNOPSIS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER VARIANCE
DOES EXIST WITH THE HANDLING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH THIS
FEATURE DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING GENERALLY FROM SERN SD NEWD INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.
..UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
CONSIDERABLE NOCTURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
TUESDAY MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF MN/WI SWWD INTO NEB...FOCUSED ALONG
WRN EDGE OF 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ. WHILE SOME DECREASE IN AREAL STORM
COVERAGE MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THAT
WILL OCCUR IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OWING TO LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCES SUGGESTS THAT THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE NOCTURNAL STORMS
OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB.
BY AFTERNOON...ANY ONGOING TSTMS PRESENT IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
WILL LIKELY REINTENSIFY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES
WITH ARRIVAL OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED ALONG COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL INTO ERN
NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. STORMS MAY TEND
TO EVOLVE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS EWD INTO PORTIONS OF
IA...ERN MN AND WRN WI.
.MEAD.. 09/16/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment