SWODY2
SPC AC 010532
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MODERATELY STRONG POLAR JET WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...IN A BROADLY CYCLONIC BELT
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO CALIFORNIA...BEFORE SPLITTING INTO A
COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER ...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH CURVES IN A BROADLY CYCLONIC FASHION ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC POLAR JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...MID-LEVEL COOLING...AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR NEAR AN ASSOCIATED 50+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK...WHICH ALL
PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND UTAH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS
OF THE INSTABILITY...AND EXPECTED LOW TOPPED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...IT APPEARS THAT PEAK CONVECTIVE GUSTS...AND
HAIL...PROBABLY WILL MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
...FLORIDA...
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED IMPULSE
AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG A REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH/EAST OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD NEVERTHELESS STILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MOISTENING...AND AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT...OVERALL...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND AREAS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
...GREAT LAKES...
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BECOME COUPLED WITH DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN AN ELEVATED
ZONE OF STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...TO SUPPORT A LOW RISK FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
..KERR.. 11/01/2008
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