SWODY2
SPC AC 171658
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
THE COMPACT/VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NW TODAY
WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE FAR SRN EXTENT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES ON SUNDAY...WHILE A LARGER/AMPLIFYING PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAT LATE DAY 2. THE MORE SRN TRACK OF
THE LATTER SYSTEM AND EWD PROGRESSION OF LEAD IMPULSE WILL ACT TO
FURTHER BREAK DOWN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN EXTENDING EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EWD...WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY REGION BY
12Z MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG EAST
COAST WILL MAINTAIN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND PRECLUDING A
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND OVER SERN AZ
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE RESPECTIVE WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES
AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN BOTH REGIONS SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF GENERAL
TSTM AREAS.
..PETERS.. 10/17/2009
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