SWOD48
SPC AC 170849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY/DAY 4 AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY/DAY 5. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE EXIT REGION OF A
POWERFUL LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EWD WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION APPEARS
GREATEST FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY SSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS OR
OZARKS. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THURSDAY/DAY 6
WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY POSSIBLY SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND A LARGE
SEVERE THREAT AREA IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
..BROYLES.. 10/17/2009
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