SWODY1
SPC AC 220037
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL AND WRN NEB...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH FROM SW ND
INTO CNTRL SD. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK IN THIS AREA AND THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS WRN NEB...SW SD AND FAR SE WY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ALONG A MOIST AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F. RUC
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IS GREATER IN THIS AREA ESPECIALLY IN
CNTRL NEB WHERE SEVERAL STRONG SFC-BASED STORMS ARE LOCATED. THE
LATEST LBF 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ALONG WITH
SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WITH HAIL
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL AS THE ACTIVITY BECOMES ELEVATED THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 09/22/2008
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