SWODY2
SPC AC 210545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...
...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
NRN GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT NEWD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER
MODEL RUNS...ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY PEAK
HEATING. UNDOUBTEDLY...LARGE SCALE MASS FIELDS WILL BECOME
FOCUSED/SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING DEEP CONVECTION AS 60KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADS ACROSS SERN WY AND INTENSIFIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE THE ABSENCE OF A HIGHLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATEST
THINKING IS SFC TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
WRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR MOIST
CONVECTION. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SUPERCELLS...SHOULD
DEVELOP AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ALONG
ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES EAST INTO MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH MARGINALLY SO...CLOUD BASES SHOULD LOWER AND
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ROBUST FROM WCNTRL NEB...NWD
INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT SHOULD BE
INVOLVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THERE SHOULD BE LINEAR GROWTH ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY
LATE...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE INTENSITY WILL DROP MARKEDLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS BUOYANCY BECOMES AN ISSUE.
..DARROW.. 09/21/2008
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