SWODY3
SPC AC 210712
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY...
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND STRONGER WITH NRN
PLAINS TROUGH TUESDAY. STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
ROTATE INTO MANITOBA/NWRN ONTARIO EARLY...THEN A SECONDARY SPEED MAX
SHOULD KICK EWD LATE WHICH SHOULD NUDGE TRAILING SFC FRONT EAST
ACROSS MN/NWRN IA INTO NEB. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARM ADVECTION
WILL PLAY AN INSTRUMENTAL ROLE IN EARLY DAY CONVECTION. IN
FACT...ONE OR MORE MCS/S COULD BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING NEAR THE MS RIVER. IN THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THROUGH MID DAY THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE. HOWEVER...LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
REMOVE CONVECTION INHIBITION THAT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT WIND SHIFT. A FEW ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A NARROW AXIS OF INCREASED BUOYANCY
FROM NERN NEB...NEWD INTO NWRN WI IN THE WAKE OF ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY SEEMS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING SLIGHT
RISK DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
REDUCED INSTABILITY DUE TO EARLY-MID DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
..DARROW.. 09/21/2008
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