SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212251
NEZ000-SDZ000-220015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN SD...WRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212251Z - 220015Z
IT APPEARS THAT A WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE CELLS COULD
STILL GET A BOOST AS THEY SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO A STRONGER AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT...ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING TO THE REAR OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE NOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
DAKOTAS. AS THIS MOTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES...MID-LEVEL
WARMING COUPLED WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN INCREASING INHIBITION TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AND...IT
IS NOT CLEAR ONGOING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST MUCH
BEYOND 00-02Z. UNTIL THEN...THOUGH...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
..KERR.. 09/21/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
43300266 43720269 44000193 43520124 43000081 42640063
41660059 41010137 41120207 41650268
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