DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120600
SWODY2
SPC AC 120559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL AMPLIFY
SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...REACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...A LEE CYCLONE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. WARM FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS
OK AND NWRN TX SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO KS BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WHILE A PACIFIC FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN
ROCKIES.

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS...

A SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EAST OF
DEVELOPING LEE LOW. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR WITHIN THE NEWD EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL
MOIST PLUME ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS...MODEST NWD DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION ATTENDING THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC
WARMING MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN NM THROUGH ERN CO ALONG
WRN AND NWRN FRINGE OF MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS
ERN NM AND BELOW 500 J/KG OVER ERN CO WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
LIMITED...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN NM INTO SE CO.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS
MID-UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...AND SOME OF THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE FARTHER NWD INTO ERN CO
OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION...STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL...BUT A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PROVIDE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH LATE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDE
A CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS MIGHT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.


OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS STORMS /LIKELY ELEVATED/ SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM KS NWD INTO NEB/SD WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
LLJ. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

..DIAL.. 10/12/2013

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