MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 130342
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130900-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0273
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1142 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 130340Z - 130900Z

SUMMARY...EXPANDING AND GRADUALLY ORGANIZING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUALLY
EXPANDING AND ORGANIZING COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL TX.
THE ACTIVITY IS SLOW-MOVING AND IS SITUATED ALONG THE TAIL END OF
A FRONT THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPR TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. LATEST GOES-SOUNDER DATA
SHOWS PWATS INVOF THE BNDRY AOA 1.5 INCHES...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT SEEN THE LAST
FEW HOURS. COMPLEMENTING THIS IS ALSO THE MID AND HIGH LVL
MOISTURE TAP SEEN IN IR/WV IMAGERY WITH RESPECT TO NEWLY FORMED
T.D. 15-E IN THE E PAC....AND A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW JET ASSOCD
WITH THIS. MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS
MAINLAND MEXICO AND MOVING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL TX WILL LIKELY TEND
TO AID AND HELP ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WV IMAGERY STRONGLY SUGGESTS ALREADY AN
AXIS OF DIV FLOW NEAR THE FRONT...AND THE RESULTING DEEP LYR
ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR BACK-BUILDING AND MERGING
CONVECTIVE CELLS...AND WITH ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION...SEVERAL
SLOW-MOVING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HVY
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY. FFG VALUES ARE RATHER HIGH...BUT
WITH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES/HR...AND THE SLOW
MOVEMENT...THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY VERY HVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31229585 30689632 30289761 30099899 30390067 31040104
31470046 31719902 32379704 31939580 31229585

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