SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121634
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-121730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NERN LA...NWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121634Z - 121730Z
STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING WITHIN ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED
INSTABILITY ALONG THE MS DELTA REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUPPORTS THIS INCREASING BUOYANCY PER RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FROM UNION COUNTY TO MONROE COUNTY IN SERN AR. IN FACT UPDRAFTS
HAVE DEVELOPED QUICKLY IN THIS ZONE WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE
NOW APPROACHING 9 C/KM. IT APPEARS THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
WILL SPREAD EWD INTO NWRN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CENTER OF
UPPER LOW OVER NWRN AR IS SHUNTED TOWARD LIT BY MID AFTERNOON. COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVOR HAIL
PRODUCTION...THOUGH LARGEST HAILSTONES MAY ONLY BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS.
..DARROW.. 10/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 32779293 34289216 35289065 34938939 33768978 32679116
32779293
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