SWODY2
SPC AC 121726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHER MID LATITUDE BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES APPEARS LIKELY TO
AMPLIFY FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES...INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKIES THROUGH THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED
TO DIG DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER AREA INTO THE EASTERN STATES...CONTRIBUTING THE EVOLUTION OF
A BROADER SCALE TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
MODELS INDICATE THE PHASING OR MERGER OF SEVERAL DISTINCT BRANCHES
OF FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...INCLUDING ONE CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW NOW
DIGGING ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...AND ANOTHER
EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS IS PROGGED TO
EVENTUALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...BUT WAVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT COMMENCE
ALONG A FRONT LINGERING NEAR SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2+
INCHES/ IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
REMNANT FRONT NEAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE FRONT NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AS WELL AS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS.
ELSEWHERE...TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...A NORTHWARD RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS SONORA IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...GREAT LAKES/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO APPALACHIANS...
STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE LEAD DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO EARLY DAY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD BE
ONGOING FROM PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEASTERN/NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE...AT LEAST
INITIALLY...ELEVATED ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE...BUT COULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE DESTABILIZING
WARM SECTOR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS UPPER FORCING SPREADS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MAXIMUM CAPE COULD APPROACH
OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...WARM
SECTOR WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER
WEAK...PARTICULARLY IN LOWER AND MID-LEVELS... WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE...IF NOT NEGATE...ANY RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
..KERR.. 10/12/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment