DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 280732
SWODY3
SPC AC 280730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF NWRN TX...WRN
OK INTO SWRN AND CNTRL KS...

...SYNOPSIS...

ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER JET STREAK DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
AND MID MS VALLEY REGIONS. THIS PROCESS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD
ACCELERATION OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM MN SWWD THROUGH
WY EARLY SATURDAY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT
NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AS SWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THIS
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

...CNTRL KS THROUGH OK AND NWRN TX REGIONS...

CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN A BROAD
ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER-MID VALLEY REGIONS AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY. IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY...LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO
THE BROAD WARM SECTOR. STRONGER DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX AND OK INTO WRN/CNTRL KS...LIKELY BOOSTING
MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ALONG SEWD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT FROM KS SWWD INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. OTHER STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE OVER NWRN TX. THE ACTIVITY WILL
THEN SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING. FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH
OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM
TROUGH WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

..DIAL.. 03/28/2013

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