DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131259
SWODY1
SPC AC 131256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
JET PATTERN ACROSS THE LWR 48 HAS TEMPORARILY REVERTED TO A MORE
ZONAL ONE...BUT AMPLIFICATION IN THE SRN STREAM WILL SIGNAL THE
RETURN OF ANOTHER SPLIT FLOW REGIME BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...BROAD/CONFLUENT WSW FLOW E OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL SERVE
TO FURTHER WEAKEN EJECTING IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE OH VLY.

FARTHER S...AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN FOR DECEMBER WILL AFFECT THE SRN
THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. INVERTED TROUGH PROGRESSING W WITH
REMNANTS OF T.D OLGA WILL USHER IN A DEEP CURRENT OF UNSTABLE E/SELY
FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

..UPR OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS...
LOW LVL WAA NOW OCCURRING OVER WV AND WRN MD ON NOSE OF 50+ KT SWLY
LLJ WILL SHIFT E OFF THE NJ CST BY MID AFTN. WHILE EMBEDDED
CONVECTION LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD...
POSITIVE TILT OF DEAMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH AND AREA SOUNDING DATA
SUGGEST THAT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/
THUNDER LIKELY WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THUS...WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY OCCUR TIL MID AFTN...OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED.

..S FL...
INCREASINGLY RICH AND DEEP /PW APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY EVENING/
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.S. OLGA WILL OVERSPREAD
SERN FL THIS AFTN AND EVENING. COUPLED WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
E/SE FLOW...MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT BANDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN. INITIALLY THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR MIA AND
OVER THE KEYS. BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD SPREAD W ACROSS FAR SRN FL
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED.

.CORFIDI.. 12/13/2007

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