SWODY1
SPC AC 130533
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST WED DEC 12 2007
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..UPPER OH VALLEY...
COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATION THIS
EVENING WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE UPPER TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE COUNTRY.
ONE STRONG FEATURE IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO WV/OH/PA
DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW MOIST-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 250
J/KG...SUGGESTING UPDRAFTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK. NEVERTHELESS...
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES...MAINLY BEFORE 00Z.
..FL...
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OLGA WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OFFSHORE
AND OVER THE KEYS. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
.HART.. 12/13/2007
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