SWODY2
SPC AC 130546
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST WED DEC 12 2007
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD THROUGH THE WRN U.S. AND
CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
AND SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM HAS TRENDED TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH A RESULTING LACK OF A LOW LEVEL RESPONSE AND
MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH
MORE THAN THE NAM AND PHASES IT MORE WITH LEAD IMPULSE NOW DROPPING
INTO CA. WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION THIS FORECAST
SINCE THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. AT THE SURFACE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF MIGHT APPROACH THE TX/LA COASTS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE BUILDS SEWD THROUGH
TX.
..ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION OF PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER ACROSS TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN IT COULD MOVE
ONTO THE TX/LA COASTS DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO SPREAD
NEWD ABOVE RETURNING MOIST AXIS AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE. A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ERN TX
OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SURGE SEWD THROUGH
TX AS THE LOW SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT.
..S FL...
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF OLGA AND A STALLED
FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS S FL.
.DIAL.. 12/13/2007
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