SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070100
OKZ000-TXZ000-070230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX THROUGH S-CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 070100Z - 070230Z
CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM N-CNTRL TX THROUGH S-CNTRL OK MAY POSE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND A WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OR ORGANIZATION.
THIS EVENING A BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM N-CNTRL TX THROUGH
S-CNTRL OK. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING ALONG WRN EDGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS
ADVECTING NWWD. PROXIMITY FORT WORTH SOUNDING INDICATES MODERATE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY /1500 J/KG/ MLCAPE...BUT MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND NORMALIZED CAPE. AN INVERSION WAS ALSO EVIDENT
AROUND 700 MB...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
SHALLOW. A RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATES SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN. SFC-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER AS LLJ INCREASES...SUPPORTING 0-1 KM SRH FROM 200-300 M2/S2
IN VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL WHICH SUGGESTS THE WINDOW FOR ANY TORNADO
THREAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED.
..DIAL.. 11/07/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32809910 34309771 35179691 34949623 33729674 32409834
32339917 32809910
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